AGP Executive Report

Aviation Strategy Push: IATA urged Uzbekistan to adopt a national airport master plan and a unified aviation strategy, warning that rapid growth in passenger and cargo demand is fragile without coherent planning and stronger safety controls. Housing & Construction Rules: Uzbekistan tightened housing structural safety rules, banning layout/structural changes in apartment buildings older than 50 years and shifting more liability to contractors for defects during warranty periods. Vehicle Import Flexibility: Uzbekistan lifted a rule limiting individuals and companies to one vehicle compliance certificate per year, easing hurdles for corporate fleets and multi-vehicle imports. Uzbekistan-Russia Economic Ties: At SPIEF, President Mirziyoyev highlighted expanding Uzbekistan-Russia trade and investment cooperation, while Putin used the forum to stress BRICS momentum and multipolar trade shifts. Digital Trade Growth: Putin said Uzbek goods on Wildberries are set to surge toward $2bn in 2026, reflecting how e-commerce is helping small manufacturers scale across Eurasia. Tourism & Diplomacy: Cyprus’ foreign minister pledged to deepen trade, investment, transport and logistics cooperation with Uzbekistan after talks in Tashkent. Environment Finance: The GEF assembly in Samarkand drew calls for faster, simpler climate adaptation funding, with Tanzania urging stronger support for vulnerable countries.

Housing Rules: President Mirziyoyev signed new regulations banning structural and layout changes in multi-family apartment buildings older than 50 years, while shifting warranty-era defect responsibility more clearly onto contractors through penalties tied to corporate ratings. Vehicle Imports: Uzbekistan lifted a yearly cap on how many vehicles individuals and legal entities can import using compliance certificates, easing barriers for corporate fleets and families. Construction & Permitting: The government also eased some blueprint-stage re-approvals for minor layout tweaks that don’t break urban planning codes, aiming to cut bureaucratic delays. Nuclear Power Push: Uzbekistan and Russia moved forward on building the country’s first nuclear power unit, with cost guidance cited at US$9.5 billion. Digital Trade & Platforms: Wildberries expects Uzbek goods sales to jump toward $2bn in 2026, while SPIEF-linked platform rules aim to equalize commissions for Russian and foreign sellers and tighten transparency. Regional Business Ties: Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee wrapped up a Uzbekistan visit, signing 35 deals across trade, finance, tech, and aviation. Climate Finance: At the GEF assembly in Samarkand, Tanzania urged more adaptation funding as the world races to meet 2030 environmental targets.

Uzbekistan–Hong Kong Business Push: Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee led a delegation to Tashkent, signing 35 MoUs on trade, investment, finance, tech and aviation, with Mirziyoyev and Lee highlighting Hong Kong as a “super connector” for Uzbekistan’s modernization. Nuclear Power Dealmaking: Uzbekistan’s first integrated nuclear plant is pegged at a $9.5bn cost ceiling, with plans to seek mostly external credit (up to 85–90%) and talks with BRICS’ New Development Bank. Competition & Digital Markets: Uzbekistan’s regulator gave preliminary approval for Tapuz Limited to acquire OLX Classifieds, but only under conditions restricting dominance and misuse of user data. Public Transport Reform: The government extended a zero recycling fee for imported new buses, electric buses and trolleybuses until end-2027, and set a new validator-based exit payment system from Sept 2026. AI for Jobs: Digital Technologies Minister Sherzod Shermatov said Uzbekistan’s AI strategy prioritizes job creation and bringing remote work home. Regional Connectivity Talks: At the second Termez Dialogue, Uzbekistan discussed advancing an Afghan-transit rail project with feasibility work aimed to finish by year-end. Aral Sea Restoration Cooperation: Xinhua reports China–Central Asia research efforts based in Tashkent to monitor and tackle Aral Sea shrinkage and land restoration. Ukraine War Spillover: St. Petersburg faced a large-scale Ukrainian drone attack during SPIEF, with dozens of UAVs reportedly shot down and no damage reported.

Public Transport Reform: Uzbekistan extended a zero recycling fee for imported buses, electric buses and trolleybuses until end-2027, tied to Euro-5+ standards, and will roll out a new validator-based exit payment system from 1 Sept 2026 using cards, NFC phones, QR and other digital methods. AI & Jobs: At SPIEF, Digital Technologies Minister Sherzod Shermatov said Uzbekistan’s AI strategy is human-centric, aiming to create jobs and bring remote work home as foreign IT offices expand rapidly. Education & PPP: ADB will back Samarkand’s preschool expansion via PPP: about 100 kindergartens (37 new, 49 reconstructed, 66 renovated), with land allocation first and an international tender expected next. Competition Oversight: Uzbekistan’s regulator gave preliminary approval for Tapuz Limited’s planned 100% OLX acquisition, but imposed conditions to prevent dominance abuse and misuse of user data. Nuclear Power Push: Uzbekistan set the integrated nuclear plant cost ceiling at $9.5bn and signaled financing talks (including BRICS New Development Bank), while a “first concrete” ceremony marked construction start with Russia. Eurasian Trade & Diplomacy: Mirziyoyev told SPIEF that Uzbekistan-Russia trade has risen to $13bn and proposed deeper industrial and digital integration; Belgium also announced it will open an embassy in Tashkent. Regional Business Climate: Ferghana officials are looking at new chemical projects after a Chirchiq technopark visit, building on recent investment and job creation.

Nuclear Power Push: Russia and Uzbekistan have officially started construction of Uzbekistan’s first nuclear power plant, with Rosatom’s RITM-200N design and a hybrid setup (two large units plus two small modular reactors) in Jizzakh Region, expected to cover about 15% of national power demand. Capital Markets & Investor Mood: Uzbekistan’s GDRs on the London Stock Exchange jumped after Fitch revised the country’s outlook to positive, signaling growing confidence in the reform agenda. Trade Snapshot: Uzbekistan’s foreign trade hit $26.3bn in Q1 2026, with imports rising faster than exports as machinery and industrial inputs drove demand. Logistics Investment: Oman’s Asyad Group agreed to acquire a controlling stake in key Uzbek logistics platforms, aiming to link Omani port operations with Central Asian rail/road, warehousing, customs and last-mile delivery. Digital Mobility Deal: VEON’s Kyivstar unit Uklon will buy electric scooter operator E-wings for about $2.2m, expanding ride-hailing into a broader multimodal mobility ecosystem. Agribusiness Acceleration: ICBA and Uzbekistan’s Agency for Innovative Development launched a Farmers’ Accelerator Program in Karakalpakstan to help farmers commercialize crop value chains and improve market access. Regional Diplomacy: Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan reaffirmed strategic partnership, while Uzbekistan and Hong Kong moved toward a 30-day mutual visa-free arrangement and deeper fintech/green cooperation.

Markets & Finance: Uzbekistan’s GDRs jumped on the LSE after Fitch revised the country’s outlook to positive, lifting investor sentiment around reforms and the push toward an investment-grade rating. Logistics & Trade: Oman’s Asyad Group agreed to acquire a controlling stake in key Uzbek logistics platforms, aiming to strengthen cargo corridors linking ports and Central Asia. Energy & Diplomacy: President Mirziyoyev arrived in St. Petersburg for talks with Putin and to formally kick off construction of Uzbekistan’s first integrated nuclear power plant reactor, while the wider SPIEF agenda continues amid drone-related security concerns. Business & Mobility: Hong Kong and Uzbekistan moved closer to easier travel with a 30-day mutual visa-free arrangement, while Hong Kong’s business delegation in Tashkent highlighted new trade and investment deals. Power & Cities: A technical fault at Tashkent’s thermal power plant caused a brief blackout and metro disruptions, underscoring the economic cost of urban outages. Environment & Climate Finance: Uzbekistan used the GEF Assembly in Samarkand to push green investment plans and research capacity, as partners discussed scaling natural resource and food-system projects. Consumer Safety: Uzbekistan removed several Chinese-made children’s toys from sale after safety tests found formaldehyde and other compliance failures. Regional Cooperation: Uzbekistan and South Korea launched a new phase of aquaculture cooperation, focusing on technology transfer and training.

Sovereign Credit Boost: Fitch upgraded Uzbekistan’s outlook to “Positive” from “Stable” while keeping the “BB” rating, citing progress on structural reforms, macro stability, privatization, and stronger fiscal transparency. Gold Demand Signal: World Gold Council data shows central banks resumed net gold buying in April (+17 tonnes), with Poland the biggest buyer and China extending its streak—supporting the broader “reserve diversification” theme. Trade & Connectivity Push: Hong Kong and Uzbekistan agreed to move toward a mutual 30-day visa-free regime, with talks also covering investment, finance, digital transformation, AI, and transport/logistics. Regional Deals: Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan discussed expanding trade, transport links, and cultural ties after Kyrgyzstan’s UN Security Council win. Competition Watch: Uzbekistan’s competition authority opened cases over alleged violations worth over 8 billion soums, including coal and flour sales not routed through required exchange trading. Cross-border Transit: Afghanistan and Uzbekistan moved to strengthen transit and trade cooperation, focusing on logistics facilitation and removing obstacles for Afghan exporters. Business Diplomacy: Hong Kong’s trade chief is targeting new Uzbekistan deals after signing 43 MoUs in Kazakhstan, including plans for direct flights.

Credit Outlook Upgrade: Fitch revised Uzbekistan’s sovereign rating outlook to “positive” (affirmed “BB”), citing structural reforms, tighter fiscal discipline, and a move toward inflation targeting; it projects 6% GDP growth in 2026 and reserves rising to about $71bn. Policy & Budget: Parliament approved the 2025 state budget execution report, showing 7.7% GDP growth, 7.3% inflation, and social spending at 47% of total outlays. Financial Rules: New insurance-agent regulations set procedures, training requirements, and limits on agent participation in loan-linked insurance deals. Banking Capital: Trastbank plans a 1trn soum charter capital increase via 1:1 capitalization. Competition & Tax Integrity: The competition authority flagged violations worth 8bn+ soums tied to improper direct contracting and price manipulation; meanwhile, tax authorities suspended 102.5bn soums in social cashback over suspected falsified receipts. Business & Investment: IFC committed up to $10m to Highland Central Asia Fund II to back SMEs across Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan; EBRD talks focused on capital market development and growth prospects. Trade & Mobility: Uzbekistan and Hong Kong agreed in principle to expand cooperation and move toward a mutual 30-day visa-free regime. Tourism Push: World Bank discussions targeted tourism infrastructure and the Central Asia Tourism Ring; Rotana is exploring hotel expansion, especially in Samarkand. Logistics Deal: Asyad Group acquired controlling stakes in Uzbekistan logistics assets to strengthen trade corridors. Inclusive Employment: Yandex Lavka expanded jobs for hearing-impaired workers in Tashkent dark stores.

Nature4Health: Uzbekistan has launched the Nature4Health scoping phase (Phase II) as a country partner, aiming to strengthen “One Health” links between ecosystem protection and primary pandemic prevention, with a focus on Karakalpakstan and Aral Sea-related environmental pressures. Culture & Creative Economy: President Mirziyoyev signed a decree creating the “Investments in Creativity” state targeted fund with an annual budget of 200 billion soums, plus broad tax incentives for culture and film/TV, and cash prizes to boost international competition participation. Regional Connectivity: Uzbekistan will host the second Termez Dialogue (June 4–6) to expand engagement with Afghanistan and advance transit, trade, and economic cooperation, with business talks involving the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment. Film Industry Overhaul: Mirziyoyev also moved to reform Uzbekistan’s film governance by dismantling Soviet-style censorship bodies and shifting script/project review to professional expert groups, targeting 5–10 festival-competitive films annually. Air Links: Shirak Avia launched Yerevan–Tashkent–Yerevan direct flights, restoring connectivity after decades and supporting tourism and business ties.

Uzbekistan-Russia Energy Diplomacy: President Shavkat Mirziyoyev will visit Russia on June 4–5 for SPIEF and bilateral talks, including a planned meeting with Vladimir Putin and participation in the launch of Uzbekistan’s first integrated nuclear power plant construction. Renewables Investment: Uzbekistan’s Energy Minister said Saudi Arabia and the UAE have become key investor-partners in the renewable energy sector, while Chinese firms are shifting from EPC roles to direct project investment. Green Trade & Expo: Eco Expo Central Asia 2026 opened in Samarkand with participation from over 100 countries, and Uzbekistan also launched a biosafety initiative aligned with the Cartagena Protocol, funded by the Global Environment Facility. Financial Market Rules: The Central Bank reported eightfold growth in Islamic financial services via microfinance organizations, and Uzbekistan registered a new central clearing framework to strengthen settlement and reduce counterparty risk. Business & IP Push: The lower house adopted a draft constitutional law on the Tashkent International Financial Centre, and Mirziyoyev announced expanded support for the culture and arts sector plus stronger digital tools to protect intellectual property. Crime Crackdown: Prosecutors uncovered a UZS 35.1bn cashback fraud scheme in Andijan using fictitious invoices and Soliq Mobile. Connectivity & Tourism: Shirak Avia launched Yerevan–Tashkent–Yerevan flights, and Uzbekistan is pursuing deeper tourism cooperation with Hong Kong, including potential new direct air links.

Culture & IP Push: President Shavkat Mirziyoyev unveiled a wide package to revive Uzbekistan’s culture and arts, including expanded tax exemptions for private theatres, film and children’s content producers, and arts education, plus state reimbursement of up to 20% of concert/event costs from July 1 and free vouchers for hundreds of thousands of citizens. He also called for stronger copyright enforcement, with plans to use digital tools and AI to track creative assets and protect authors’ revenues. Anti-Fraud Crackdown: Prosecutors in Andijan say a tax cashback scheme used the Soliq mobile app and nine shell LLCs to generate fake invoices and receipts, allegedly embezzling UZS 35.1bn from the state. Energy Stability Focus: The Ministry of Energy said blackouts remain a priority to eliminate, but stressed that grid reliability also depends on more rational electricity use by households and institutions. Trade & Connectivity: Qatar and Uzbekistan chambers met in Tashkent to activate their Joint Business Council and target sectors like halal, while Uzbekistan will host a second Termez Dialogue on regional connectivity June 4–6. Business Climate Signals: Uzbekistan’s active businesses near 581,000, with trade the largest sector by number of enterprises.

Culture & Creative Economy: Uzbekistan is expanding tax incentives for the culture sector, exempting eligible organizations from VAT, profit tax, turnover tax, land and property taxes, and personal income tax, while also making sponsorship funds for literature, culture and the arts non-taxable; from 1 July, the state will reimburse up to 20% of regional concert and cultural event expenses, create regional directorates to manage venues, and issue free vouchers for 500,000 people plus 100,000 low-income families and children with disabilities. Film Industry Overhaul: The government will reform film governance by abolishing several state bodies and changing financing rules from 1 September, including allowing up to 30% of state-ordered budgets for promotion/advertising, ending mandatory expert review of procurement contracts, exempting foreign film companies from taxes, and allocating 50% of screening revenues from state-commissioned films to incentives for producers and creative teams. Trade & Exports: Ferghana region secured Malaysia market access for farm exports, with first air shipments of cherries and new apricots and peaches; separate Japan-focused efforts include deals for IT services worth $5m by end-2027 and expanded retail supply plans for Ferghana fruit to Costco and AEON stores in Japan. Business Climate & Compliance: The Tax Committee clarified how entrepreneurs can use a simplified VAT option (6%) from 1 June 2026, including voluntary choice rules and transition timing. Banking: Ipak Yuli Bank appointed Umidjon Khakimov as new chairman of its management board. Local Governance: Tashkent’s Sergeli district denied claims that the Sergeli car market will be demolished, saying modernization and infrastructure works are underway. Digital Government: Uzbekistan is discussing GovTech, secure data exchange, digital ID, AI in public services, and cybersecurity cooperation with Finland’s HAUS and Estonia’s ESTDEV, alongside telecom talks with Elisa on 5G and AI-driven network automation. Energy & Infrastructure: Uzbekistan’s energy minister said cooperation with Azerbaijan on the Green Energy Corridor is being strengthened, with targets for renewable capacity and clean electricity exports.

State Finances: Uzbekistan’s state debt climbed to $47bn by end-Q1 2026, up $4.4bn year-on-year, with 85% tied to external, mostly budget-deficit-related borrowing. Tax & Compliance: The Tax Committee reviewed 82 entrepreneur appeals over UZS 375.1bn in disputed penalties; it upheld most regional decisions (UZS 342.2bn) but granted partial relief to four businesses (UZS 600m adjusted/cancelled), while seven cases remain under review. Shadow Economy: The unobserved economy reached UZS 102.7tn in Jan–Mar 2026 (22.9% of GDP), split between informal household activity (UZS 69.1tn) and the shadow economy (UZS 33.6tn), with agriculture the biggest hotspot. Regional Trade & Connectivity: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan signed a roadmap for trade and economic cooperation, covering industry, petrochemicals, logistics, agro, tourism and “green” energy. Aviation Links: FLYONE Asia launched new regular flights between Tashkent–Baku and Tashkent–Ganja, boosting Central Asia–South Caucasus travel and business ties. Environment & Funding: Uzbekistan hosted the GEF Council in Samarkand as the GEF-8 cycle ramps up, with delegates discussing $200m+ in new environmental and climate project funding. Creative Economy Support: Tashkent unveiled Uzbekistan Creative Park with tax and status incentives aimed at turning creative work into scalable businesses.

GEF in Samarkand: Uzbekistan is hosting the Eighth Global Environment Facility Assembly and the 71st GEF Council meeting, with final GEF-8 funding approved and new projects spanning biodiversity, water management and blended finance for renewable power and storage in Uzbekistan. Small business tax relief: A new presidential decree raises the VAT threshold for moving into the general tax regime (from UZS 1bn to 12,000×BCA) and introduces a simplified VAT option (6% flat) for eligible catering, trade and services firms from June 1. Uzbekistan Creative Park: Tashkent unveiled a Creative Park initiative to help creative professionals register as business residents and access infrastructure and support under the Law on the Creative Economy. Uzbekistan–Kazakhstan trade roadmap: Mirziyoyev and Tokayev signed an action plan covering cooperation in automotive, energy, chemicals, logistics, construction materials, housing and agriculture. Regional water pressure: Kyrgyzstan called for compensation mechanisms for shared water and energy resources as glacier melt accelerates across Central Asia. Cross-border agriculture trade: Rosselkhoznadzor clarified it has not imposed bans on Uzbek fresh fruit and vegetables, saying it will negotiate technical terms with Uzbek regulators. Business forum ties: Turkestan and Tashkent regions agreed to expand trade, investment and tourism cooperation and push joint industrial projects.

SME Tax Relief: Uzbekistan’s new presidential decree boosts small-business growth with a higher VAT entry threshold from June 1 (12,000× the Base Calculating Amount) and a simplified 6% VAT option for eligible catering, trade and services firms until 2030, easing reporting and corporate income tax. Energy Storage Push: Uzbekistan’s BESS capacity reached 1,545 MW, covering over 13.5% of evening peak demand, as the country expands renewables and storage to stabilize the grid. Trade Roadmap with Kazakhstan: Mirziyoyev and Tokayev signed a practical roadmap in Astana covering cooperation across autos, energy, chemicals, metallurgy, pharma, logistics, construction materials, housing and agriculture. Russia Fruit/Vegetable Import Rules: Rosselkhoznadzor says it has not imposed bans on Uzbek fresh produce, but it is clarifying technical talks after earlier confusion about temporary restrictions on 10 exporters. LPG Supply Shift: Uzbekistan sharply increased LPG imports from Russia to 231,000 tons in Jan–Apr 2026 (3.5×), aligning with rising regional energy demand. Corruption Crackdowns: Authorities detained suspects in bribery cases in Jizzakh and Ferghana, including alleged payments tied to land allocation and loan approvals. Pharma Enforcement: Large illegal medicine shipments were seized in Ferghana and Namangan, with authorities citing improper storage and unlawful circulation. Regional Connectivity: Uzbekistan will host the second Termez Dialogue on June 4–6 in Tashkent, focusing on peace, connectivity and climate adaptation for shared prosperity. Japan Partnerships: Ferghana region agreed partnership cooperation with Japan’s Tochigi Prefecture, while TEXNOPARK discussed potential escalator production expansion with Shanghai Mitsubishi.

EAEU Integration Push: Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev used the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council meeting in Astana to back closer EAEU ties, proposing a unified digital space for barrier-free trade and new steps on digital trade, industrial cooperation, transport connectivity and organized labor mobility. Small Business Tax Relief: Uzbekistan’s presidential administration says a new decree raises the VAT registration threshold from 1 billion to 5 billion soums, aiming to cut red tape and ease the tax burden on family businesses, cafés, retail and services. Russia Tightens Fruit/Vegetable Imports: Rosselkhoznadzor will temporarily restrict imports from 10 Uzbek exporters starting May 30, citing repeated phytosanitary violations and quarantine pest detections. WTO Milestone with India: Uzbekistan and India signed a protocol closing bilateral market access talks, a key step toward Uzbekistan securing full WTO membership before end-2026. Uzbekistan–Kazakhstan Trade Roadmap: A practical action plan was signed in Astana to implement investment and trade agreements, covering sectors from automotive and energy to logistics and agriculture.