AGP Executive Report

Energy Sector Overhaul: President Shavkat Mirziyoyev ordered tighter management and accountability in Uzbekistan’s fuel and power sector, saying the issue is not financing but system discipline and local oversight; the review cited thousands of grid failures in June–July that left some regions without power for 8–10 hours, and led to the dismissal of the energy minister and the head of Regional Electric Networks. Energy Leadership Change: Sherzod Khodjaev was appointed Uzbekistan’s new energy minister, replacing Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov, as the government pushes reforms to stabilize electricity and gas supply. Afghanistan Trade Push: Uzbekistan and Afghanistan’s private sectors signed 22 trade agreements worth over $200m at a Kabul business forum, targeting annual bilateral trade of $5bn; the deals span paper, petroleum, food and edible oil, logistics, construction and solar, with Uzbekistan also set to buy more Afghan cotton. Cross-Border Logistics Upgrade: eTIR began fully digital operations across the Caspian Sea, linking Azerbaijan–Turkmenistan–Uzbekistan under one procedure to speed and secure Middle Corridor shipments. Islamic Finance Step: Uzbekistan approved licensing rules for Islamic banking and established an Islamic Finance Council as the new banking framework takes effect. Digital Market Expansion: TBC Bank Group completed its majority acquisition of OLX Uzbekistan, expanding the reach of the country’s leading online classifieds platform. Healthcare Investment Link: Saudi Arabia’s health minister met Uzbekistan’s deputy prime minister to deepen cooperation, including progress on the Fergana Hospital project with Saudi participation. Regional Diplomacy: Uzbekistan’s new ambassador to Belarus presented credentials as both sides discussed implementing joint projects and a 2026–2030 cooperation roadmap.

Afghanistan-Uzbek Trade Push: Afghan and Uzbek officials signed 22 trade MoUs worth over $200m at an Afghan-Uzbek Business Forum in Kabul, targeting $5bn in bilateral trade; talks also covered transit, agriculture and investment, with Uzbekistan ready to buy an additional 100,000 tonnes of Afghan cotton after a trial export of 10,000 tonnes. Banking & Digital Commerce: TBC Bank Group completed its majority-stake acquisition of OLX Uzbekistan, expanding its digital footprint in one of the country’s most visited classifieds platforms with 5m+ monthly active users. Education for AI Talent: Uzbekistan and Japan agreed to launch a new Uzbek-Japanese University in Tashkent under the University of Tsukuba, with English-taught master’s programs in AI, digital transformation and business administration starting in 2028-29. Regional Economic Coordination: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan launched a Council of Regional Leaders in Aktau to boost trade, investment and transport links, aiming to support a $10bn bilateral trade target. Energy Finance Watch: CATL reported a 42% jump in H1 2026 net profit as energy-storage demand strengthened, while Voltalia said it surpassed 2GW of operational solar capacity in H1.

Uzbek-Afghan Trade Boost: Uzbekistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjaev led a large delegation of traders and investors to Kabul to expand trade, transit, investment and unlock new projects; officials say bilateral trade has climbed to about $1.6bn, with plans including a $50m zinc ore processing plant in Hairatan and more imports of Afghan meat and cotton. SCO Diplomacy in Kyrgyzstan: China’s Wang Yi met Kyrgyz leaders and foreign minister counterparts ahead of the SCO Bishkek Summit, stressing practical cooperation and support for major infrastructure such as the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway. Uzbekistan–Kyrgyzstan Value Chains: Coverage highlights deepening economic integration, with trade turnover reaching nearly $1.2bn in 2025 and rising further in Jan–May 2026, as both sides push joint industrial and logistics links. Education & Skills Link: Uzbekistan and Japan agreed to set up a joint university in Tashkent, with master’s programs in AI, digital transformation and business administration, and a preparatory office opening in September. Regional Connectivity Signals: Uzbekistan’s push for more freight capacity and corridor options continues to appear alongside SCO-related coordination, reinforcing the business focus on transport and cross-border trade.

Afghanistan-Uzbekistan Trade Push: Uzbekistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjaev led a large delegation to Kabul to speed up investment and trade commitments with the Taliban, with officials citing $1.6bn bilateral trade and plans to expand mining investment, and boost imports of Afghan meat and cotton. Business Forum Momentum: A 300-member Uzbek business delegation is set to meet Afghan traders at an Afghanistan-Uzbekistan Business Forum focused on expanding trade, transit and investment. Healthcare Partnership Upgrade: Uzbekistan and France agreed to deepen cooperation on oncology and trauma care, including a Gustave Roussy Cancer Center branch in Uzbekistan, specialist training in France, diagnostic technology pilots, and work on modern trauma centers in Tashkent resort areas. Regional Connectivity Watch: Talks around the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and broader infrastructure cooperation continue to feature in SCO-linked diplomacy, underlining how transport links remain central to Central Asia’s trade plans. Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan Value Chains: Coverage highlights growing bilateral trade and industrial cooperation as both countries move toward joint value chains.

Uzbekistan–Kyrgyzstan Trade Push: Bilateral trade is surging as both sides move from “border issues” to joint projects and value chains, with Uzbekistan’s exports to Kyrgyzstan up sharply and 2026 January–May turnover rising fast. SCO Diplomacy with Business Angle: On SCO sidelines in Cholpon-Ata, Pakistan’s Ishaq Dar met Uzbekistan’s Bakhtiyor Saidov and others, reaffirming cooperation on trade, investment, transport and connectivity—aiming to lift mutual trade and keep regional stability on the agenda. China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan Connectivity: Chinese FM Wang Yi backed implementation of major infrastructure, including the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway, while Kyrgyz leaders flagged business-friendly conditions and project delivery. Afghanistan Opens a Kabul–Tashkent Deal Track: Uzbekistan’s Deputy PM Jamshid Khodjayev led a 170-trader/investor delegation to Kabul for meetings and a B2B forum focused on trade, transit and investment with the Islamic Emirate. Supply Chain Shock in Kyrgyz Garments: Drone attacks on Russian logistics warehouses hit Kyrgyz garment exporters reliant on Wildberries, with firms reporting multi-million-som losses and renewed pressure on already strained producers.

SCO Diplomacy for Trade: China’s Wang Yi met Kyrgyz FM Jeenbek Kulubaev and also held talks with Uzbek FM Bakhtiyor Saidov, stressing deeper economic cooperation and key connectivity projects like the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway. Regional Connectivity Push: Pakistan’s Ishaq Dar said Islamabad will host the 2027 SCO Heads of State Council Summit and urged more connectivity and economic cooperation across the bloc. Uzbekistan–Kyrgyzstan Trade Links: Kyrgyzstan’s alcohol trade shows a major gap—imports outstrip exports by 16.2x in Jan–May, with Uzbekistan among key grape wine suppliers. Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan Integration: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan reviewed delivery of a $7.8bn investment-and-trade roadmap, signed deals worth over KZT80bn, and are driving 80 joint projects worth $1.8bn to lift trade and logistics ties. Afghanistan Business Access: Uzbekistan plans a high-level trade visit to Kabul with 170 traders and investors, aiming for B2B talks and new agreements. Gold Price Impact in Uzbekistan: A gold boom is boosting incomes for small miners but also raising inflation and debt concerns, with worries about dependence on a single commodity.

Uzbek Economy Watch: Uzbekistan’s economy grew 8.5% in H1 2026, with services up 16.9% and construction up 13.8%, while investment hit about €24.6bn and exports about €12.7bn, as credit-rating upgrades signal rising investor confidence. Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan Trade Push: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan signed deals worth over 80bn tenge (~$146m) in Aktau and reviewed progress on an $7.8bn “Investments and Trade Road Map,” with bilateral trade at $4.8bn in 2025 and +37% to $2.3bn in Jan–May 2026; leaders also set a goal to lift trade to $10bn via a new Council of Heads of Regions. Afghanistan Business Link: Kabul will host a high-level Uzbek trade delegation led by Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjaev, bringing 170 traders and investors for B2B talks and expected agreement signings. Transit & Logistics: Uzbekistan and Pakistan plan to integrate a China-linked transit corridor through Pakistan’s Sost Dry Port, aiming to diversify away from disrupted routes. Energy & Capital Flows: A Henderson Land family office says it is fast-tracking Central Asia green energy plans, including SAF and smart storage, targeting over $1bn in investments. Gold Price Impact: A gold boom around $4,000/oz is boosting incomes in Uzbekistan’s small mines but raising inflation, debt, and dependence concerns.

Uzbek Economy Watch: Uzbekistan’s economy grew 8.5% in H1 2026, driven by services (+16.9%) and investment (about €24.6bn), while construction (+13.8%) and industry (+8%) also expanded; officials also cited major sovereign credit upgrades (Moody’s Ba3→Ba2; Fitch outlook turned positive). Rail Freight Crunch: President Mirziyoyev ordered a 10,000-wagon plan to ease rolling-stock shortages and pushed for $200m World Bank financing for railway infrastructure. Digital Finance: Uzum was named among the world’s top fintech companies by CNBC and Statista for the first time, landing in the neobanking category as it scales digital payments and banking-like services. Cross-Border Payments: Korona Pay suspended Russia→Kazakhstan and Russia→Georgia transfers, while keeping Russia→Uzbekistan, Türkiye, Kyrgyzstan and Azerbaijan routes active. Transport Connectivity: Centrum Air will launch Tashkent–Karachi direct flights from Sept 3 (twice weekly), boosting business and tourism links with Pakistan. Regional Trade Ties: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan discussed expanding trade and investment, citing $4.8bn bilateral trade in 2025 and a 37% jump in Jan–May 2026 to $2.3bn.

Uzbek Fintech Spotlight: Uzum has entered CNBC-Statista’s 2026 ranking of the world’s top fintech companies, recognized in the neobanking category—an “ecosystem” push that comes as millions in Uzbekistan increasingly use online payments and banking services. Energy & Courts: In Tashkent, the trial of former Uzbekneftegaz boss Bahodir Siddiqov and others opens amid a wider crackdown on alleged embezzlement and weak procurement controls, with attention on how state energy contracting is being reshuffled. Trade & Compliance: Russia’s Rosselkhoznadzor restricts imports of fruits and vegetables from five Uzbek exporters over phytosanitary violations, affecting items like cabbage, onions, grapes, tomatoes and more. Regional Water Security: The World Bank approved a $20m grant to boost cross-border water cooperation in Central Asia via CAWEC, targeting better Amu Darya and Syr Darya basin management through stronger institutions and data sharing. SCO Diplomacy: Uzbek FM Bakhtiyor Saidov met China’s Wang Yi ahead of SCO foreign ministers’ meetings in Kyrgyzstan, underscoring intensifying China–Uzbek ties as the bloc weighs regional security and cooperation. Labor Migration Deal: Bulgaria and Uzbekistan move toward a framework to regulate labor migration, allowing Uzbek workers to be hired without separate work permits for up to a year (extendable), aiming to fill Bulgarian labor shortages.

SCO Diplomacy: Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar will lead the country’s delegation at the SCO Council of Foreign Ministers meeting in Cholpon-Ata, Kyrgyzstan on July 23–24, holding bilateral talks with SCO counterparts on regional security and connectivity. Water & Regional Trade: The World Bank approved a $20m grant to strengthen transboundary water cooperation in Central Asia, targeting better management of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins via improved water accounting and data sharing through EC IFAS. Central Asia Business Momentum: Uzbekistan’s regional business activity stayed upbeat in June, with tax revenues up 45.6% year-on-year, customs payments up 19.2%, exports up 27.6%, and bank lending up 5%, led by gains in Namangan, Navoi, Samarkand and Tashkent. FDI Snapshot: UNCTAD data shows Central Asia’s FDI stock rose 3.6% to $235.5bn in 2025, with Kazakhstan holding about two-thirds, while Uzbekistan recorded the strongest annual increase. Cross-border Logistics: Pakistan and Uzbekistan agreed in principle to reroute some transit trade through China, aiming to keep cargo moving despite security disruptions on older routes. Islamic Finance Move: Uzbekistan approved Islamic banking licensing rules and established an Islamic Finance Council as the new banking law takes effect. Uzbekistan-Afghanistan Rail Talks: Afghan and Uzbek officials discussed expanding railway cooperation, including feasibility work for the Trans-Afghan railway and related logistics upgrades. Sustainable Fuel Export Plan: Allied Biofuels outlined planned SAF/e-SAF export routes from Uzbekistan to Europe and the UAE via rail and sea corridors, under a logistics agreement signed in Tashkent.

Middle Corridor Security Gap: Kazakhstan and Georgia are testing an e-permit system for international road freight, while a wider push for a single transit document across the Middle Corridor continues—yet analysts flag a missing security component as the route gains strategic weight amid regional tensions. Lab Migration Deal: Uzbekistan and Bulgaria approved an agreement to regulate labour migration, allowing Uzbek workers to be hired in Bulgaria without separate work permits for up to a year (extendable), with seasonal worker rules also set. Afghan-Trans Railway Talks: Afghanistan and Uzbekistan reviewed feasibility work for the Trans-Afghan railway and the Herat–Mazar-e-Sharif line, aiming to boost freight capacity and create a shorter Central-to-South Asia trade corridor. Uzbekistan–China Trade Scale-Up: New reporting says Chinese direct investment in Uzbekistan has topped $8bn this year, with bilateral trade above $6bn and nearly 6,000 enterprises with Chinese capital. Islamic Finance Push: Uzbekistan approved licensing rules and established an Islamic Finance Council as new banking law provisions take effect. Digital Finance Spotlight: Uzum was named among the world’s top fintech companies (CNBC/Statista) in “neobanking,” reflecting Uzbekistan’s expanding digital payments ecosystem. Energy & Logistics for SAF: Allied Biofuels outlined planned SAF/e-SAF export routes from Uzbekistan to Europe and the UAE via rail and sea corridors, with supplies targeted from 2030. Diplomatic Shake-Up: President Mirziyoyev dismissed Uzbekistan’s ambassador to Belarus over weak investment and trade efforts.

Transit & Connectivity: Pakistan and Uzbekistan agreed in principle to reroute some bilateral transit trade through China, with amendments to the Pakistan-Uzbekistan Transit Trade Agreement expected during Uzbekistan Deputy PM Jamshid Khodjayev’s postponed visit, as security disruptions keep closing the Afghanistan and Iran corridors. Aviation Fuel Logistics: Allied Biofuels mapped multimodal export routes for planned SAF/e-SAF from Uzbekistan to Europe and the UAE via rail and sea through Kazakhstan, the Caspian, the Black Sea and the Suez, tied to its $6.08bn Khorezm project. Trade Digitalization: Pakistan Single Window launched an official mobile app to let importers, exporters and customs agents track declarations, manage certificates and payments, and submit time-sensitive requests. Economic Outlook: Uzbekistan raised its 2026 growth forecast to 8.1% on stronger 2025 and early-2026 performance, with inflation projected to cool and exports, investment and remittances supporting demand. Finance & Banking: OTP Bank agreed to buy Baltic lender Luminor, a deal that could expand OTP’s euro-area footprint—while regulators and the ECB will weigh approvals. Energy Risk: Rosatom’s financial troubles may delay Central Asia nuclear plans, adding uncertainty for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan projects. Policy & Business Climate: Uzbekistan dismissed its ambassador to Belarus over weak investment and trade results, signaling tighter economic diplomacy expectations. Self-Employment Formalization: Uzbekistan’s self-employed registration surge (688,800 since start of year) shows continued push to bring platform and independent workers into the tax system. Regional Links: Uzbekistan and India discussed deepening ties in trade and investment after a phone call between their foreign ministers.

Uzbekistan Growth Watch: Uzbekistan’s economy expanded 8.5% in H1, with services up 16.9% and industrial output up 8%, as investments hit $28bn and trade turnover reached $14.4bn; Fitch and Moody’s also upgraded the sovereign rating. Public Finance: Uzbekistan’s public debt rose to $46.9bn by Jan 1, 2026, with the debt-to-GDP ratio at 31.9%, while the 2027–2029 fiscal strategy targets a gradual decline to 31% by end-2026. Islamic Finance Push: The Central Bank approved licensing procedures for Islamic banking and set up an Islamic Finance Council to coordinate regulation and supervision under the new Islamic banking law. Energy & Cost Pressure: Rising fuel and LPG prices are squeezing households across the region, with Central Asia heat also straining roads and power grids. Trade & Connectivity: Uzbekistan is expanding links with partners—Centrum Air will launch direct Karachi–Tashkent flights from Sept 3, and regional transport plans (including the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway) are framed as major transit catalysts. Business Climate Signals: Foreign-invested companies in Uzbekistan now exceed 20,000, reflecting continued investor interest.

Islamic Finance Rollout: Uzbekistan’s Central Bank set up an Islamic Finance Council to coordinate banks and microfinance under the new Islamic banking law that took effect June 29, with Sharia specialists and a financial-sector expert tasked to draft standards and regulatory guidance. Growth Outlook: Uzbekistan raised its 2026 growth forecast to 8.1% in its 2027–2029 fiscal strategy, citing stronger 2025 and early-2026 performance, with inflation expected to ease to 6.5% and unemployment to fall. Foreign Investment Snapshot: Uzbekistan reports foreign-invested companies now exceed 20,000, with China the biggest source of such firms. Middle East Risk Watch: The government flagged geopolitical tensions and commodity-price swings as key macro risks, even though trade with Middle Eastern partners is relatively limited. Air Connectivity Boost: Centrum Air will launch direct Karachi–Tashkent flights from Sept 3, adding two weekly services and lifting total weekly direct links between the two countries. Regional Infrastructure Push: Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov said the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway, once launched, could turn Kyrgyzstan into a transit hub and deliver “a second Kumtor” in long-term income. Self-Employment Formalization: Kazakhstan registered 688,800 self-employed people since the year began, with most working via digital platforms—an indicator of how the region is expanding formal work and tax participation.

Uzbekistan-India Ties: India’s EAM S. Jaishankar held a phone call with Uzbekistan’s FM Bakhtiyor Saidov, agreeing to deepen cooperation in trade, investment and other areas, and to keep regular, trust-based dialogue between foreign ministries. Financial Crime Crackdown: Police in Tashkent arrested people for selling fake US dollars and dismantled a group that used a fake MyGov portal to steal more than UZS 1 billion. Banking & Digital Finance: TBC Uzbekistan won Euromoney awards including Central Asia’s Best Digital Bank, plus country-level recognition for consumer lending and SMEs—part of broader group wins across Georgia and the region. Trade & Investment Momentum: Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan target $1bn in trade via a new package of joint projects, while Uzbekistan and Türkiye expanded preferential trade ties with a $5bn goal. Energy & Industry Deals: Allied Biofuels signed a logistics cooperation agreement to move SAF/e-SAF from Uzbekistan to Europe and the UAE, building rail and marine export corridors. Regional Connectivity: Progress continues on the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, with remaining obstacles noted. Currency & Markets: Uzbekistan authorized 14 international financial institutions to issue local-currency bonds, signaling deeper integration into global financial markets.

Banking Awards: TBC Uzbekistan was named Central Asia’s Best Digital Bank by Euromoney and also won Uzbekistan’s Best Digital Bank, Best for Consumer Lending, and Best Digital Bank for SMEs, highlighting the push toward AI-enabled customer experience. Nuclear Energy Risk: Rosatom says it will cut its investment programme by nearly 50% and reduce operating costs, raising fresh doubts for Central Asia’s nuclear build plans, including projects linked to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Aviation Demand: IATA’s 2025 World Air Transport Statistics show premium travel rising 4.5% in 2025, while Asia dominates global traffic; the Cape Town–Johannesburg corridor handled 3.4 million passengers in 2025, underscoring how connectivity supports business growth. SAF Logistics Deal: Allied Biofuels signed a logistics cooperation agreement with Pro Logistic Services to build export infrastructure for SAF/e-SAF from Uzbekistan to Europe and the UAE, supporting its US$6.08bn decree-backed project. Trade & Diplomacy: Uzbekistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjayev is set to visit Pakistan to expand trade, investment, and industrial cooperation, with a five-year implementation roadmap on the agenda. Health Cooperation: Afghan and Uzbek officials discussed expanding cooperation in pharmaceuticals, medical equipment, health products, and food, including technical knowledge transfer and joint programmes.