AGP Executive Report

Banking Leadership: Ipoteka Bank confirmed Adam Szentpeteri’s appointment as CEO, pending central bank clearance, after he served as acting chief since June 3. Trade & Connectivity: Oman Air Cargo announced five new routes, including Muscat–Tashkent twice weekly, aiming to boost perishables and time-critical freight links across Asia. Regional Energy Security: Kyrgyzstan’s PM said Uzbekistan could supply up to 20,000 tons of fuel per month as Russia supplies tighten, with talks on contract terms still pending. Cross-border Projects: Kyrgyzstan and China discussed transport upgrades, including the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway and a new road segment through the Bedel checkpoint, plus a vehicle bridge over the Uzöngü-Kuush River. Business Climate & Growth Targets: Uzbekistan’s fiscal strategy raised its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 8.1% (from 6.6%), while the president pushed a 9–10% sustainable growth goal. Human Capital: El-Yurt Umidi Foundation head Gulnoza Ismailova spoke on Uzbekistan’s shift from student mobility to “co-creation,” highlighting education and talent development abroad. Compliance & Risk: Kyrgyzstan returned nearly 25 tons of Uzbek onions after inspections found missing mandatory phytosanitary labeling under Eurasian Economic Union rules. Investment Finance: The U.S. doubled TRIPP+ Enterprise Fund funding to $402m to support private-sector development across South Caucasus and Central Asia, including Uzbekistan.

Wildberries Expansion in Kazakhstan: Russia’s Wildberries plans two new logistics centers in Astana and Almaty, totaling 260,000 sq m and targeted for early 2027, as recent attacks on its Russian warehouses have hit sellers hard. Uzbek-India Strategic Push: Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov’s New Delhi visit reaffirmed the strategic partnership, with talks spanning trade, investment, energy, digital tech and regional security, plus an India–Uzbekistan business forum. Kyrgyz-China Transport Deals: Kyrgyzstan and China discussed key infrastructure projects, including the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway and border bridge plans, to support growing trade. U.S. Regional Trade Diplomacy: U.S. Assistant Secretary Paul Kapoor will tour India, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan to boost trade ties and business opportunities. Labor Migration Shift: Entries of Central Asian workers into Russia fell about 15% in H1 2026, with Uzbekistan down 13.2% amid tighter Russian migration rules. U.S. Funding for TRIPP+: The U.S. doubled TRIPP+ Enterprise Fund support to $402m to back private-sector development across South Caucasus and Central Asia, including Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan Growth Outlook: Uzbekistan’s 2027–2029 fiscal strategy raised the 2026 GDP growth forecast to 8.1%, with a presidential target of 9–10% annual growth. Uzbek-Kyrgyz Border Villages: Procedures began to transfer two border villages—Chon-Gara and Tash-Tobo—from Uzbekistan to Kyrgyzstan under demarcation agreements.

Uzbekistan–Kyrgyzstan Border Deal: Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have begun the formal handover of two border villages—Chon-Gara and Tash-Tobo—under the demarcation agreement, covering about 2,500 residents and triggering relocation and citizenship procedures. Cross-Border Trade & Logistics: Uzbekistan Railways welcomed the “Slavic Caravan” freight train from Belarus, a 51-car route aimed at boosting mutual trade and industrial cooperation. Legal & Media Risk: An Uzbek businessman won a default High Court defamation case in the UK, securing £105,000 in damages and £117,663 in legal costs in a “pink slime” journalism dispute. China’s Expanding Footprint: New reporting shows China is rapidly increasing its economic presence in Uzbekistan, with H1 2026 trade turnover rising to $7.7–$8.9bn and thousands of Chinese firms and joint ventures operating across mining, industry and energy. Mining & Trade Talks: India floated a possible free trade agreement with Uzbekistan as both sides push to raise trade toward $3bn in three years, with copper and rare-earth processing in focus. Aviation Connectivity: Centrum Air will launch direct Tashkent–Karachi flights from Sept 3, adding four weekly services and strengthening business and tourism links. Gold Reserves: World Gold Council data shows Uzbekistan bought 9 tonnes of gold in June as central banks continued net accumulation amid geopolitical uncertainty. Tech & Education: Uzbekistan is accelerating higher-education reforms—more institutions, credit-module systems, updated programmes, and growing international accreditation—to position itself as a regional education hub.

Uzbek-India Trade Talks: India’s Piyush Goyal floated a possible free trade agreement with Uzbekistan as both sides push to double trade to about $3bn in three years, with mining and rare-earth processing high on the agenda. China’s Growing Footprint: China is expanding its role in Uzbekistan fast—1H26 trade hit $7.7bn (Uzbek data) and Chinese firms’ presence rose to 6,060 joint ventures/companies, alongside a surge in Chinese tourism after visa-free travel. Uzbek-Kyrgyz Jobs & Industry: The Uzbek-Kyrgyz Development Fund backed 37 projects worth $100.5m, supporting 883 new jobs and boosting trade turnover by $40m, with work spanning textiles, energy, logistics and manufacturing. AI Economy Push: Uzbekistan is trying to turn its IT outsourcing base into an AI export economy, while a separate report highlights how AI tools are spreading across Central Asia in education and healthcare. Finance Watch: Uzbekistan’s National Investment Fund posted a near-4,000% YoY profit jump largely driven by unrealised gains tied to market revaluations after its May 2026 IPO. Aviation & Connectivity: Centrum Air plans direct Tashkent–Karachi flights from Sept 3, while Oman Air added five cargo routes including Tashkent to strengthen time-sensitive logistics. Gold Reserves: Central banks bought 51 tonnes of gold in June; Uzbekistan was among the buyers with 9 tonnes.

Uzbekistan–India Trade Push: Uzbekistan’s FM Bakhtiyor Saidov met India’s Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla in New Delhi, focusing on deeper parliamentary ties and expanding trade, investment and connectivity ahead of PM Modi’s upcoming visit. US–Central Asia Commercial Agenda: US Assistant Secretary S. Paul Kapur will visit India, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan to boost trade and investment, strengthen supply-chain resilience and expand business links. Regional Connectivity & Markets: Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan began transferring two border villages under the demarcation deal, while Kyrgyzstan also plans to increase border crossing points—moves that can affect cross-border commerce. Aviation & Logistics: Oman Air Cargo launched five new routes in one week, including Muscat–Tashkent, aiming to move perishables and time-sensitive goods faster. Tech for Industry: Uzbek engineers are developing an onboard AI module for the Samarqand-2028 Earth observation satellite with a Chinese partner, targeting agriculture and environmental monitoring. Trade Friction: Kyrgyzstan blocked nearly 25 tons of Uzbek onions due to packaging-labeling issues under EAEU phytosanitary rules.

Uzbekistan–India Trade Push: Uzbekistan and India agreed at a New Delhi business forum to lift bilateral trade to $2B and speed up investment cooperation, with ministers also floating a possible free trade agreement and focusing on sectors like mining, pharma, healthcare, and cotton. Border & Land Deal: Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have started the formal transfer of Chon-Gara and Tash-Dobo villages under the border demarcation framework, with residents being registered and citizenship procedures to follow. Aviation & Logistics: Oman Air Cargo launched five new cargo routes in a week, including Muscat–Tashkent, aiming to expand capacity for perishables and time-sensitive shipments. Space Tech: Uzbek engineers are developing an onboard AI module for the Samarqand-2028 Earth observation satellite with a Chinese partner, targeting uses from agriculture monitoring to national mapping. Standards for Cotton: BCI and Uzstandard partnered to boost cotton sustainability standards in Uzbekistan, aligning national rules with international certification criteria. Regional Trade Friction: Kyrgyzstan blocked about 25 tons of onions from Uzbekistan due to labeling not meeting EAEU phytosanitary requirements, sending the cargo back. Tourism Momentum: A WTTC-based analysis says Central Asia tourism is growing fast, with Uzbekistan leading in how important tourism is to its economy.

Aviation Deal: Incheon International Airport Corporation has won Uzbekistan’s “Tashkent New Airport Development and Operation Project,” a 6.9 trillion won PPP under a Build-Transfer-Operate model, with construction starting after a 2027 timeline and 31 years of operations rights. Border & Land Management: Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan have begun transferring two villages—Chon-Gara and Tash-Dobo—to Kyrgyzstan as part of border demarcation, covering about 2,500 residents, with citizenship and property issues now being handled. India–Uzbekistan Trade Push: India and Uzbekistan are reviewing and expanding their strategic partnership, with ministers urging businesses to double bilateral trade over the next three years (from about $1.5bn) and focusing on critical minerals/rare earths, mining, energy, defence, pharma, textiles and IT. Connectivity: Uzbekistan’s Centrum Air will launch direct Tashkent–Karachi flights from Sept 3, twice weekly, adding to existing Pakistan routes. Central Asia Finance: Uzbekistan’s central bank extended currency trading hours from Aug 10 to 5 p.m., aiming to improve FX liquidity management and settlement continuity. EU Migration Politics (Uzbekistan mentioned): Italy plans EU-funded “Albania-style” migrant hubs outside the bloc, with a list of potential host countries that includes Uzbekistan.

India–Uzbekistan Trade Push: In New Delhi, Uzbek FM Bakhtiyor Saidov met President Droupadi Murmu as both sides flagged new cooperation in mining (especially rare earths), agriculture, pharma and IT. Business Forum Momentum: India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal urged firms to co-invest, co-manufacture and co-innovate, targeting a doubling of bilateral trade from about $1.5bn to $3bn in three years; Uzbekistan’s Laziz Kudratov invited Indian capital into mining/metallurgy and rare earths, projecting $2bn trade next year. Tax Policy Watch: An Uzbek government advisory body proposes cutting banks’ income tax to 15% from 20% and introducing VAT on fixed-fee commission financial services to offset revenue losses. Digital Commerce: BirBir, Uzbekistan’s classifieds platform, reported 150% year-on-year growth and 3m+ app installs as it expands nationwide across 18 categories. Border/Regional Developments: Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have started procedures to transfer two villages to Kyrgyzstan, with about 2,500 residents affected and citizenship/registration steps underway. Energy Infrastructure: Uzbekistan’s nuclear power plant project roadmap points to SMR commissioning in 2029 and first large reactor in 2033, with completion targeted for 2034–35.

Uzbekistan-India Diplomacy & Business: Foreign Minister Bakhtiyor Saidov arrived in New Delhi for a four-day visit, meeting President Droupadi Murmu and EAM S Jaishankar and joining a business forum aimed at deepening trade, investment, energy and security ties. Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Trade & Industry: After Mirziyoyev’s state visit to Kyrgyzstan, both sides signed a Treaty on Allied Relations and agreed to set up an interstate council, with plans to expand trade and industrial cooperation and accelerate projects tied to the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway. Customs Digitalization: Pakistan Customs took part in a UNODC-WCO meeting in Tashkent focused on technology-enabled trade facilitation, including AEO mutual recognition and AI-based risk management—relevant for regional logistics. Pharma Supply Cooperation: At a Kyrgyz-Uzbek business forum, Kyrgyzpharmacy highlighted the need for multi-year procurement guarantees and closer manufacturer–distributor–government dialogue, pointing to joint procurement and production cooperation. Cross-border Zones: Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan moved to cooperate on free economic and industrial zones via a memorandum covering joint projects, investor ties and best-practice exchange. Regional Connectivity & Afghanistan: Mirziyoyev said Afghanistan can help build a “common development space” linking Central Asia, the South Caucasus and Afghanistan, while Afghanistan’s economy ministry stressed expanding trade and transit with Central Asian partners. Market & Deal Watch: TBC Bank (Georgia) and U.S. Titan Investments bought out Uzbekistan’s biggest classifieds platform OXL Uzbekistan, with TBC taking a majority stake and planning to use the platform for financial services. Water & Farming Pressure: Reports highlighted rising water risks for businesses, and field research described how women farmers in Uzbekistan sometimes divert irrigation water at night to save crops.

Water & Climate Risk: New reports warn drought and heat are pushing water risk onto corporate agendas, hitting sectors like grain and textiles (including cotton and dyeing), with knock-on effects for investors and local communities. Uzbekistan Trade Update: Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover hit $41bn in 1H26 (+7.4%); exports were $15.9bn and imports $25.1bn, with the deficit widening as imports rise for modernization and high-tech inputs. Cross-Border Facilitation: China–Uzbekistan Authorized Economic Operator (AEO) mutual recognition is now in force, promising simpler customs checks and faster clearance for compliant exporters. Regional Deals (Kyrgyzstan): Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev wrapped talks in Kyrgyzstan, with a Treaty on Allied Relations and plans for an Interstate Council, plus steps to boost trade and industrial cooperation and improve transport links. Free Zones Cooperation: Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan signed a memo to develop and manage free economic and industrial zones, aiming to attract investment and deepen industrial ties. Business & Investment (Classifieds): TBC Bank (Georgia) and U.S. Titan Investments bought out OXL Uzbekistan, taking a 51% and 49% stake respectively, with TBC later planning to use the platform for financial services. Afghanistan Support: Uzbekistan provided $200,000 in medical equipment to Abu Ali Sina Balkhi Hospital in Balkh, as Afghanistan’s healthcare supply gaps persist. Tourism & Diplomacy: Preparations advanced for the first “Central Asia–Korea” summit, with Astana senior officials agreeing on the draft “Seoul Declaration.” Energy/Transport Context: Russia extended a gasoline export ban to Jan 31, 2027, while Kyrgyzstan shifted some fuel sourcing to China by road and Belarus by rail—an indirect reminder of regional supply volatility.

Uzbekistan Trade Update: Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover hit $41bn in 1H 2026, up 7.4% year-on-year, with exports at $15.9bn and imports at $25.1bn; the deficit remains a key pressure point as imports rise on industrial modernization and demand for equipment. Customs Facilitation: A China–Uzbekistan AEO mutual recognition deal has entered into force, promising simpler customs clearance and lower logistics costs for compliant exporters. Digital Market Deal: Georgia’s TBC Bank and U.S. Titan Investments bought out parent OXL Group to take control of OXL Uzbekistan (OLX Uzbekistan), with TBC holding 51%—a move that could funnel TBC services through the classifieds platform. Regional Connectivity Push: Uzbekistan is positioning Afghanistan as a bridge for a “common development space” linking Central Asia, the South Caucasus and Afghanistan, while regional leaders in Kyrgyzstan called for stronger trade, transport and investment platforms. Central Asia–Azerbaijan Diplomacy: At the Cholpon-Ata consultative meeting, leaders—including Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev—backed a more integrated regional architecture, with Azerbaijan joining as a full member. Cross-Border Business Climate: Uzbekistan–Kyrgyzstan ties advanced after Mirziyoyev’s Kyrgyz visit, including a Treaty on Allied Relations and plans to lift trade and industrial cooperation.

Uzbekistan Trade Update: Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover hit $41bn in the first half of 2026, up 7.4% year-on-year, with exports at $15.9bn and imports at $25.1bn; the deficit remains a pressure point as imports rise on industrial modernization and demand for equipment. Customs Facilitation: A China–Uzbekistan AEO mutual recognition deal has entered into force, promising simpler customs clearance (less inspection, faster processing) for compliant exporters and cutting logistics costs. Regional Connectivity Talks: Uzbekistan is pushing a “common development space” linking Central Asia, the South Caucasus and Afghanistan, with leaders calling for stronger trade, transport, digital services and investment platforms. Central Asia–Azerbaijan Summit: At the Cholpon-Ata consultative meeting, presidents backed tighter coordination across intergovernmental bodies and the “Central Asia+” format, with Azerbaijan joining as a full participant. Cross-Border Business Risk: Wildberries’ warehouse attacks are being blamed for billions in losses across the company’s ecosystem, including entrepreneurs in Uzbekistan and other countries, as the firm says it is upgrading security and fire safety. Uzbekistan–India Diplomacy: Uzbekistan’s foreign minister is set to visit India (Aug 2–5) for meetings and a business forum, aiming to deepen trade and investment ties. Energy/Environment Reporting: Uzbekistan joined an OGMP 2.0 methane reporting training under the UzEMI project, aligning oil-and-gas measurement and reporting with international standards. Regional Rail Agenda: Pakistan and Türkiye agreed to revive the Islamabad–Tehran–Istanbul freight corridor, a project that could connect South Asia, Central Asia and Europe—relevant to Uzbekistan’s broader logistics ambitions.

Uzbekistan Trade Update: Uzbekistan’s foreign trade network now covers 195 countries, with China the top partner (23.1%) and Russia close behind (17.1%); exports hit $15.9bn (down 8.8% y/y) while imports rose to $25.1bn (up 21%), keeping the deficit in focus. Regional Integration Talks: At Cholpon-Ata’s informal summit, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev said Azerbaijan’s accession to the Consultative Meeting format elevates cooperation and called for long-term solutions to adapt to new risks, including stronger trade, transport links, integrated industrial chains, and investment platforms. Tourism Policy Push: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan backed Kyrgyzstan’s plan for a single tourist visa for foreign visitors across Central Asia, aiming to make the region easier to explore. Afghanistan–Uzbekistan Commerce: Afghanistan and Uzbekistan expanded trade and investment cooperation, with bilateral trade reported near $1.2bn last year and dozens of private-sector deals signed this year. Foreign Affairs—India Visit: Uzbekistan’s foreign minister Bakhtiyor Saidov is set to visit India (Aug 2–5) for meetings with President Droupadi Murmu, EAM S Jaishankar, and a business forum in Delhi. Digital & Telecom: Beeline Uzbekistan reported 5.3% y/y revenue growth in Q2 to UZS 1.009tn, supported by pricing actions and higher mobile financial services income. Energy & Reporting Standards: CAREC trained Uzbek stakeholders on OGMP 2.0 methane reporting for the oil and gas sector, aligning with UN-backed measurement-based standards.

Uzbek-India Diplomacy: Uzbekistan’s FM Bakhtiyor Saidov will visit India Aug 2-5, meeting President Droupadi Murmu and EAM S. Jaishankar, with talks expected to cover trade, investment, tourism and coordination in international forums. Regional Trade & Mobility: Central Asian leaders meeting in Cholpon-Ata backed Kyrgyzstan’s push for a unified tourist visa, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan among the supporters, aiming to make regional travel easier for foreign visitors. Uzbekistan Economy Watch: Uzbekistan’s real estate market stayed on a steady growth path in 1H 2026, with June transactions rising again after a spring dip. Telecom Growth: Beeline Uzbekistan reported 5.3% YoY revenue growth in Q2 to UZS 1.009tn, helped by pricing actions and higher mobile financial services income. Energy/Climate Reporting: CAREC ran an OGMP 2.0 training for Uzbekistan under the UzEMI methane inventories project, focusing on measurement-based reporting for the oil and gas sector. Cross-border Business: A “Slavic Caravan” rail freight service launched on the Belarus–Russia–Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan corridor, promising faster transit and container options for SMEs. New Vehicle Launch: Li Auto officially launched the all-new Li L9 in Uzbekistan, expanding its sales and service footprint in Tashkent, Samarkand and Bukhara.

Uzbekistan Trade Snapshot: Uzbekistan’s 1H foreign trade hit $41.01bn (+7.4% y/y), but the deficit widened to $9.29bn as exports fell (-8.8% to $15.86bn) while imports rose (+21.0% to $25.15bn). Central Asia Deal-Making: In Cholpon-Ata, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov and Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a Treaty on Allied Relations and set up a Supreme Interstate Council, with border and checkpoint expansion plus new cooperation plans across energy, transport, investment and culture. Border-to-Business Push: Kyrgyzstan will raise Kyrgyz-Uzbek border crossing points from 15 to 30, aiming to speed up travel and trade for border communities. Rail Freight Boost: Belarus launched the “Slavic Caravan” direct freight train to Uzbekistan, cutting transit to under a week and offering 20-ton container shipments for faster, cheaper SME logistics. Gold Reserves Trend: Central banks bought a record 289 tonnes of gold in Q2; Uzbekistan added 16 tonnes, reflecting ongoing geopolitical risk and reserve diversification. Education Cooperation: Kyrgyzstan’s education ministry clarified recognition of academic credits signed with Uzbekistan, supporting smoother higher-ed mobility.

Uzbek-Kyrgyz Alliance Talks: President Shavkat Mirziyoyev met Kyrgyz leader Sadyr Japarov in Cholpon-Ata, with both sides signing a Treaty on Allied Relations and creating a Supreme Interstate Council to implement agreements. Border & Trade Boost: Kyrgyzstan will raise Kyrgyz-Uzbek border checkpoints from 15 to 30, aiming to ease travel and expand trade, transport logistics and people-to-people ties; leaders also pushed a target of $2bn in bilateral trade, calling it “not the limit.” Mega Projects in Focus: The talks highlighted the Kambarata HPP-1 and the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway as strategic “projects of the century,” alongside broader industrial cooperation. Higher Education Link-Up: A Kyrgyz-Uzbek forum of rectors began in Issyk-Kul to expand academic integration, science cooperation and university-business ties, including digital transformation and AI. Regional Trade Snapshot: Russia–Uzbekistan trade hit $7bn in 1H 2026 (+15.7%); Uzbekistan exports to Russia rose to $2.37bn while imports climbed to $4.64bn. Aviation Connectivity: FlyOne Armenia launched direct Tashkent–Yerevan charter flights twice weekly, adding to growing air links between the two markets. Uzbek Economy Signals: CERR reported Uzbekistan’s automotive market sales topped 80,200 units in June (+18% vs May), with passenger car sales up 14%.