AGP Executive Report

EU Budget Deadlock: EU capitals are growing uneasy about Germany’s Friedrich Merz as the bloc scrambles to agree its 2028–2034 spending plan before year-end, with far-right pressure narrowing his room to maneuver. BRICS Trade Momentum: India’s exports to core BRICS markets (China, South Africa, Brazil, Russia) jumped 34% to $19.9bn in April–August 2026-27, led by a 39% rise to China—highlighting how BRICS ties are reshaping export flows. Central Asia Intra-Trade: Central Asia’s intra-regional trade rose 25.4% in Jan–Jul 2026 to $8.1bn, with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan driving most of the growth (Uzbek exports up 34.5% to $2bn). Green Energy Corridor: Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan signed a 2026–2028 roadmap for a “Green Energy Corridor” to EU markets, alongside plans to expand SOCAR-linked retail, refining capacity, and Ustyurt exploration. Uzbekistan–Syria Business Push: Uzbekistan and Syria agreed to set up a Joint Economic and Trade Committee and a 2026–2028 roadmap, with a Business Council and mutual exhibitions planned. Karakalpakstan Agri-Industrial Shift: Uzbekistan will process melons domestically on 10,000 hectares in Nukus, importing high-yield varieties and know-how while building local processing capacity. Startup Funding for the Region: SparkLabs and Mirae Asset launched a venture capital fund for Central Asian startups, targeting AI-native companies for Series A and beyond.

Uzbekistan–Syria Trade Push: Uzbekistan and Syria signed an agreement in Tashkent to set up a Joint Economic and Trade Committee, plus a Business Council, with a 2026–2028 roadmap and plans for mutual exhibitions in 2027, as Uzbek and Syrian officials and firms discussed specific investment and trade projects. Karakalpakstan Investment Drive: President Mirziyoyev chaired a Nukus meeting highlighting major incentives and fast growth in Karakalpakstan, including $1.7bn in investment last year, and a large pipeline of projects worth $7bn, with new wind power capacity and grid upgrades to support a stable energy supply. Melon Value-Add Plan: Uzbekistan will move melon production toward a vertically integrated model in Nukus, starting next spring with 10,000 hectares, importing high-yield agrotechnology know-how, and building on-site deep processing via an investor holding company and a repurposed technical college. Energy & Oil-Gas Cooperation: Uzbekistan and Azerbaijan discussed accelerating energy-sector projects, including SOCAR’s plans for gas station expansion in Uzbekistan and progress on Ustyurt exploration blocks, alongside refining capacity and crude/petroleum import cooperation. Competition Policy Update: Uzbekistan’s antimonopoly authority shared SCO cooperation progress, noting reduced state involvement in GDP to 30%, consumer/entrepreneur reimbursements, and the Fair Tech system for digital competition regulation.

Uzbekistan–Azerbaijan Energy Push: Uzbekistan and SOCAR discussed accelerating joint oil and gas projects, including expanding gas-station networks, speeding up Ustyurt exploration blocks, and boosting refining and crude/petroleum imports. Karakalpakstan Investment Drive: President Mirziyoyev chaired a Nukus meeting on socio-economic growth, citing major tax and tariff incentives and new power capacity; construction began on 47 projects worth about $7bn, including a 1.5GW wind plant. Uzbekistan–Syria Trade Machinery: Tashkent and Damascus agreed to set up a Joint Economic and Trade Committee and a 2026–2028 roadmap, plus launch a Uzbekistan–Syria Business Council to connect firms. Logistics IPO Plans: Centrum Holding says it plans an IPO in London in 2027, with Citigroup and JPMorgan advising, as it expands multimodal terminals along the Middle Corridor. Competition Policy in SCO: Uzbekistan’s antimonopoly authority reported progress on protecting consumers and entrepreneurs and highlighted its Fair Tech digital regulation system. Regional Business Links: Italy and Central Asia launched the B5+ITALY platform in Astana to deepen trade, investment, logistics, critical minerals and green energy cooperation. SCO Trade Focus: SCO ministers in Dushanbe backed efforts to simplify trade procedures, cut transit times, and push digital trade.

Uzbekistan–Syria Trade Push: Uzbekistan and Syria signed an agreement to set up a Joint Economic and Trade Committee, with a 2026–2028 roadmap and a new Uzbekistan–Syria Business Council to boost direct business links and joint projects. Uzbekistan–Israel Mining Talks: Uzbekistan and Israel discussed cooperation in mining, hydrogeology and critical metals, including groundwater management and using Uzbekistan’s updated subsoil rules and E-Auksion platform to attract investors. Karakalpakstan Investment Drive: President Mirziyoyev launched 11 projects worth $592m and broke ground on 47 initiatives totaling $7bn in Karakalpakstan, targeting energy, digital, industry, transport and healthcare, with plans for 8,000 high-income jobs. Logistics IPO Plans: Centrum Holding says it is preparing an IPO in London in 2027, aiming to expand multimodal terminals and Middle Corridor cargo services. Competition Policy Update: Uzbekistan’s antimonopoly authority shared results from SCO cooperation, including reduced state enterprise share in GDP and digital regulation via the Fair Tech system. SCO Public Opinion: A CGTN survey ahead of the SCO summit found strong global support for the bloc’s role in trade, investment and cultural ties.

Karakalpakstan Infrastructure Push: Uzbekistan broke ground on 47 projects worth $7bn and launched 11 initiatives totaling $592m during President Mirziyoyev’s visit, spanning energy, digital economy, industry, transport and healthcare, with a target of 8,000 high-income jobs. Logistics IPO Watch: Centrum Holding, a major Uzbek logistics operator, is planning an IPO in London in 2027, with Citigroup and JPMorgan advising, as it expands multimodal terminals along the Middle Corridor and grows Caspian ferry services. Trade & Finance Signals: CERR data shows Uzbekistan’s tax revenues up 39.9% and customs revenues up 17.6% in Jan–Aug 2026, while exports rose 30.9% to $11.1bn and bank lending climbed 5.5%. SCO Economic Agenda: SCO trade ministers adopted a 2026–2030 action plan in Dushanbe, focusing on lower trade costs, digital customs and stronger regional value chains. Air Cargo Momentum: IATA reports the Africa–Asia air cargo corridor is accelerating in 2026, helped by rerouting away from disrupted Middle East routes. Security Tech: INTERPOL’s AI-backed “Operation Shams II” identified 126 foreign terrorist suspects, with Uzbekistan among participating countries.

IPO Watch: Uzbek logistics operator Centrum Holding plans an IPO in London in 2027, with Citigroup and JPMorgan advising; the group says it’s expanding multimodal cargo terminals along the Middle Corridor and growing Caspian ferry and fleet capacity. Central Bank Moves Reserves: Uzbekistan’s central bank plans to outsource management of about $72bn in foreign reserves to specialized external funds to boost returns, with risk controls and transparency. Business Climate: CERR’s August survey shows Uzbekistan’s composite business climate index rising to 59, driven by improving expectations and stronger demand outlooks, especially in industry and services. Trade & Connectivity: At the SCO economic and foreign trade ministers’ meeting in Tajikistan, India pushed “Security, Connectivity and Opportunity,” urging lower trade costs, paperless customs and faster cross-border procedures. Air Cargo Expansion: SolitAir adds Tashkent and Navoiy cargo routes, targeting perishables with dedicated B2B airport-to-airport freight capacity. Energy/Industry Deals: SOCAR discusses expanding cooperation in Uzbekistan, including new SOCAR-branded filling stations and work under Ustyurt hydrocarbon blocks. Regional Security: Azerbaijan hosts “Power of Unity – 2026” drills with Uzbekistan and Türkiye participation, underscoring growing military coordination.

Monetary Policy Watch: Uzbekistan’s Central Bank kept its policy rate at 14%, citing still-elevated inflation risks from global commodity, food and energy prices plus import, transport and logistics costs. Carbon Pricing: Uzbekistan is designing an Emissions Trading System, with a pilot for 50–60 heavy emitters (25,000+ tons CO₂e/year) to shift compliance toward market-based trading and align with international climate standards. EV Import Shift: Data for Jan–Aug shows passenger-car imports moving fast from petrol to electric and hybrid—EVs were 69.4% of units, hybrids 14.1%, while petrol fell to 16.5%. Transport & Trade Links: SolitAir added Tashkent and Navoiy to its cargo network to boost perishables capacity, while Iraq and Uzbekistan discussed a draft road transport agreement for passengers and goods. Energy & Industry Deals: SOCAR is exploring new SOCAR-branded filling stations in Uzbekistan and preparing exploration drilling in the Ustyurt region with Uzbek partners. City Rail Upgrade: Tashkent approved a €157m plan to buy 10 electric Škoda commuter trains, aiming for at least 20% higher carrying capacity. Agri Innovation: ICBA graduated 207 farmers and agro-entrepreneurs in Nukus under a South-South accelerator, turning climate-resilient crops into product and enterprise concepts.

Monetary Policy: Uzbekistan’s central bank kept its base rate at 14%, citing still-elevated inflation risks from global food, energy and logistics costs even as headline inflation eased to 6.2% in August. Aviation & Trade: SolitAir launched cargo flights to Tashkent and Navoiy, targeting perishables and adding capacity to Uzbekistan’s growing air-freight market. Rail Modernization: Tashkent approved a €157m plan to buy 10 electric Škoda commuter trains, aiming to boost capacity by at least 20% and expand service across multiple corridors. Energy & Investment: SOCAR discussed with Uzbekistan’s energy and investment ministries plans for SOCAR-branded filling stations and deeper cooperation around the Ustyurt hydrocarbon blocks, where exploration work is underway. Agriculture & Water Security: Uzbekistan is pushing beyond irrigation delivery toward soil moisture retention, promoting biochar made from cotton waste as a next-step efficiency tool. Regional Security & OTS: In Baku, OTS security council secretaries met as Ilham Aliyev stressed rising war spillover risks and the need for stronger Turkic-state cooperation. Korea Links: A Korea–Central Asia summit in Seoul set a 30-year agenda and a C5+1 industrial ministers’ mechanism, with critical minerals and supply chains at the center.

Korea–Central Asia Business Push: South Korea’s KOTRA hosted the Korea-Central Asia Business Partnership in Seoul, bringing 33 Central Asian firms (including Uzbekistan) and about 90 Korean companies for 200 consultations, with 16 export deals worth around $14m signed on-site. Customs & IP Crackdown: South Korea agreed with Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan to expand customs cooperation and joint enforcement against counterfeit Korean goods, including shared information and clearance communication channels. Uzbekistan–China Capital Markets Link: Uzbekistan’s NBU and China’s CICC agreed to issue and list a $250m bond on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, partly in Uzbek soums and partly in yuan, aligned with Uzbekistan’s 2026 investment program. Agriculture Mechanization Deal: TYM signed an MoU with Uzbekistan’s agriculture ministry to field-test CNG tractors (including the T6092) on Uzbek farms through end-2028, aiming to cut fuel costs and emissions. Trade & Payments Integration: India’s UPI expanded into Uzbekistan via UZQR, enabling person-to-merchant payments through UPI apps, with central bank approvals in place. Regional Summit Momentum: Seoul’s first Korea–Central Asia summit set a 30-year agenda and a two-year leaders’ summit cycle focused on critical minerals, energy, supply chains and emerging tech.

Uzbekistan–South Korea Deal Push: Uzbekistan’s Mirziyoyev proposed a “Central Asia–Korea” partnership framework, aiming to lift bilateral trade to $20bn by 2030, plus an industrial and technology park in Uzbekistan and a regional critical-minerals investment alliance. Regional Summit Momentum: South Korea and five Central Asian states adopted the Seoul Declaration, agreeing biennial leader summits and cooperation on critical minerals, energy, logistics, digital transformation and AI. Business Summit Outcomes: At the Korea–Central Asia Business Summit in Seoul, leaders and firms backed supply-chain and value-chain cooperation, with MoUs and export contracts highlighted. Middle Corridor Focus: OTS officials said the Middle Corridor (Trans-Caspian route) is central to boosting freight volumes, while work continues on the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway and other segments. Energy Transit Watch: Kazakhstan said it has met obligations to enable expanded Russian gas transit to Uzbekistan, with negotiations ongoing. EU Sanctions Spillover: France urged the EU to lift sanctions on Russian-Uzbek billionaire Alisher Usmanov, citing pressure linked to Azerbaijan holding French nationals. Event Logistics in Samarkand: FIDE promised reimbursement and compensation after accommodation problems at the 2026 Chess Olympiad in Uzbekistan.

Korea–Uzbekistan Finance & Trade: Export-Import Bank of Korea chief Hwang Ki-yeon met Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in Seoul to expand cooperation after the first Korea–Central Asia summit, focusing on critical minerals, energy, bio/digital sectors and industrial diversification, with memorandums aimed at turning summit deals into bank-backed projects. Regional Summit Momentum: South Korea’s PM Han Seong-sook pushed deeper ties with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan on critical minerals and AI, framing the push as a supply-chain and technology upgrade for future high-tech industries. Uzbekistan–Korea Deal Pipeline: Korea and Central Asia leaders gathered in Seoul for the inaugural Korea–Central Asia summit under “Walking Together Toward the Future,” with Uzbekistan among the key partners expected to lock in a Seoul Declaration on trade, supply chains, digital innovation and connectivity. Banking Funding for SMEs: EMGA led a US$80m club loan for Uzbekistan’s Ipak Yuli Bank, backed by OeEB, CDP and Allianz Global Investors, targeting SME, gender and green portfolios. Payments Policy Watch (India): RBI backed MDR on high-value UPI merchant payments above Rs 2,000 from Oct 15, keeping person-to-person and small payments free—useful context for regional fintech pricing debates. SME Export Linkages (Indirect): SMEDA’s Japan J-GoodTech push (reported from Pakistan) highlights a similar regional trend: using B2B platforms to help SMEs reach overseas buyers.

Banking & Finance: Standard Chartered arranged a $115m yuan syndicated loan for Uzbekistan’s Asakabank, supporting importers of Chinese goods and marking the lender’s first yuan facility for the bank. Banking Deal: ABB Financial Group completed its 51% acquisition of Uzbekistan’s Davr Bank, upgrading its credit outlook and launching the “ABB Davr” universal bank brand. SME & Trade Finance: EMGA led an $80m club loan for Ipak Yuli Bank, backed by OeEB, CDP and Allianz GI, to expand SME, gender and green portfolios. Privatization: Uzbekistan relisted 84 previously unsold state assets for electronic auctions with opening bids from 1m soums, kicking off a broader privatization push. Urban Investment: Vietnam’s ROX Group plans a $1.5bn mixed-use “Uchtepa City” project in Tashkent, targeting 20,000 jobs. Payments Policy (India, but regional impact): India notified a 0.4% MDR on UPI merchant payments above Rs 2,000 from Oct 15, while keeping small-value transactions free. Regional Connectivity & Energy: Uzbekistan and South Korea are deepening cooperation on critical minerals, AI and defense, while a feasibility study for a green energy corridor linking Azerbaijan–Kazakhstan–Uzbekistan is underway with ADB support. Trade Facilitation: Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan launched a “Business Barometer” platform to track business sentiment and unlock new bilateral trade opportunities.

Banking Deal: ABB Financial Group has completed its acquisition of a controlling 51% stake in Uzbekistan’s Davr Bank, with the transaction registered on Sept. 10 at the Tashkent Stock Exchange; Davr will operate as “ABB Davr” and S&P upgraded its long-term rating to B+ (Stable). Bilateral Trade: Uzbekistan and South Korea set up a working group to boost trade, aiming for $4bn in the short term, after 2025 trade neared $1.8bn. High-Speed Rail & Defense: Seoul and Tashkent signed 13 agreements during expanded talks in Korea, spanning transport, aviation, agriculture, tourism, AI, technical regulation, and defense. SME Finance: EMGA led a further USD 80m club loan financing for Ipak Yuli Bank in Uzbekistan, backed by OeEB, CDP and Allianz Global Investors, to expand SME, gender and green portfolios. Tourism Links: Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are expanding tourism cooperation, with new direct routes and medical tourism ties highlighted. EU Sanctions: EU member states postponed the deadline to renew Russia-related sanctions by one week amid disputes over delisting Uzbek-Russian tycoon Alisher Usmanov. Regional Security: SCO-RATS condemned new military attacks on Iran and urged de-escalation, with Uzbekistan among participants.

Korea-Central Asia Deal Push: South Korea kicked off leader-level diplomacy with Central Asia, starting with Uzbekistan, aiming to broaden cooperation on transport, healthcare, climate response, critical minerals, AI and digital transformation, and defense. Supply-Chain Industrial Talks: In Seoul, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan agreed to deepen supply-chain cooperation—especially critical minerals—by expanding Korean participation in industrial complexes, smart infrastructure, and plant modernization, plus smart-tech adoption and youth expert exchanges. Bio Cluster in Focus: KIND will host a 2026 Tashkent Bio Cluster briefing in Seoul, outlining a pharma/biotech cluster plan on a ~60-hectare site inside Tashkent Bio Pharma Park, including infrastructure, land supply, and incentives for GMP-aligned manufacturers and investors. BRICS Trade & Tech Agenda: At BRICS in New Delhi, leaders backed resilience, innovation and cooperation, with Modi warning against “weaponisation” of technology and critical minerals while Xi unveiled a BRICS open-source AI push. Uzbekistan-India Finance Link: India’s finance minister met Uzbekistan’s economy and finance deputy PM in New Delhi to explore deeper economic and financial cooperation. Labor Market Pressure: Uzbekistan saw 96,415 citizens return from Aug 25–Sep 5, mainly from Russia and Kazakhstan, raising near-term employment needs at home. Expert Cooperation: Uzbekistan and Finland’s expert circles discussed expanding think-tank dialogue and sharing reform experience.

BRICS Summit in New Delhi: Leaders adopted the New Delhi Declaration, backing partner-country participation and an open session on resilience, innovation, cooperation and sustainability with Xi, Putin and Pezeshkian among attendees. Trade & finance push: Putin urged BRICS to use a new insurance mechanism and a grain market to blunt sanctions pressure, while Xi promoted a “Greater BRICS” agenda for AI and trade. Uzbekistan in the BRICS orbit: Uzbekistan’s Deputy PM Jamshid Kuchkarov joined outreach talks, and India’s finance minister met him to explore deeper economic and financial cooperation. Energy security angle: India and Uzbekistan also discussed a long-term uranium supply framework, signaling fuel planning for India’s nuclear expansion. Uzbek labor market pressure: Uzbekistan saw 96,415 returnees from Russia and Kazakhstan in late Aug–early Sep, raising the stakes for jobs and social support. Trade data watch: Uzbekistan’s imports rose 17.8% to $29.6bn in Jan–Jul 2026, with machinery and transport equipment the biggest category. Tourism business: Uzbekistan will host the International Tourism Fair, aiming to boost deals and contracts for the sector.

BRICS Summit (New Delhi) — Day 2 Focus: Leaders wrapped up the 18th BRICS Leaders’ Summit in India with an open session on “Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability”, aiming to turn the New Delhi Declaration into practical cooperation. The declaration backs local-currency trade and pushes for WTO dispute settlement restoration, while warning against tariffs, non-tariff barriers and protectionism. Uzbekistan in the BRICS Orbit: Uzbekistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Kuchkarov met Malaysia’s and other leaders on the sidelines, while Uzbekistan also appears among BRICS partner countries attending the summit. Nuclear & Trade Diplomacy: BRICS leaders voiced concern over attacks on civilian infrastructure and peaceful nuclear facilities under IAEA safeguards. EU Sanctions Spillover: Separately, France and Slovakia renewed pressure to delist Uzbek-born Russian oligarch Alisher Usmanov from EU sanctions, adding uncertainty for cross-border business links. Uzbekistan–Korea Development Push: Uzbekistan’s President Mirziyoyev called for a “joint leap in development” with South Korea ahead of the inaugural Korea–Central Asia summit, highlighting advanced technology, investment and human capital. Silk Road Tourism Deal: A luxury train retracing the Silk Road route from Beijing to Tashkent is set to launch in September 2026, signaling new high-end tourism and branding opportunities for Uzbekistan.